Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.022416 0.025479 0.028821 0.032741 0.037215 0.042167 0.048068
2025-02-16 0.017360 0.021484 0.026390 0.032669 0.040506 0.049990 0.062368
2025-02-23 0.014691 0.019253 0.025008 0.032823 0.043192 0.056530 0.075070
2025-03-02 0.012607 0.017307 0.023525 0.032386 0.044747 0.061464 0.085938
2025-03-09 0.011380 0.016267 0.023003 0.033017 0.047611 0.068239 0.099850
2025-03-16 0.010118 0.014986 0.021947 0.032688 0.048963 0.072888 0.111079
2025-03-23 0.009442 0.014452 0.021862 0.033700 0.052296 0.080653 0.127680
2025-03-30 0.008366 0.013188 0.020538 0.032652 0.052312 0.083297 0.136489
2025-04-06 0.007588 0.012296 0.019679 0.032208 0.053175 0.087267 0.147738
2025-04-13 0.006757 0.011232 0.018435 0.030994 0.052618 0.088811 0.154993
2025-04-20 0.006462 0.011015 0.018538 0.032013 0.055878 0.096993 0.174498
2025-04-27 0.006156 0.010747 0.018522 0.032809 0.058803 0.104836 0.194171
2025-05-04 0.005882 0.010519 0.018568 0.033747 0.062127 0.113809 0.217116
2025-05-11 0.005451 0.009972 0.018006 0.033534 0.063326 0.119039 0.233588
2025-05-18 0.005120 0.009574 0.017673 0.033700 0.065233 0.125744 0.253621
2025-05-25 0.004739 0.009048 0.017051 0.033250 0.065889 0.130076 0.269308
2025-06-01 0.004533 0.008835 0.017000 0.033899 0.068770 0.139051 0.295551
2025-06-08 0.004228 0.008401 0.016481 0.033561 0.069602 0.143936 0.313600
2025-06-15 0.004102 0.008313 0.016633 0.034601 0.073389 0.155297 0.347032
2025-06-22 0.003764 0.007763 0.015809 0.033524 0.072557 0.156748 0.358366
2025-06-29 0.003518 0.007382 0.015300 0.033067 0.073020 0.161032 0.376637
2025-07-06 0.003219 0.006865 0.014463 0.031820 0.071603 0.160994 0.384703
2025-07-13 0.003148 0.006833 0.014653 0.032867 0.075485 0.173329 0.423941